Let’s assume that the forecasts of sociologists are correct, and the macron will become the President of France. He has a reputation for being very liberal, even libertarian leaning. Ms. Merkel, I believe, does not apply to such “rabid” marketers. Even leaving aside the battle with the Hydra of bureaucracy, and find him, then spit on the stone? I would not agree. Ms. Merkel heads a party, and the Union, who are the preachers of the so called ordo liberalism. In Germany there is a policy of the economic order built on the tenets of Walter Onena, Alfred Mueller Armakom, Ludwig Erhard’s Christian Democrats. Yes, now the social market economy requires reforms, but in any case, this German model is built on liberal principles, where the focus on competition and antitrust policy.
Merkel supports the reforms of Gerhard Schroeder in 2003, which earned the labor market. Perhaps, in some views it is conservative as a politician, but behind it is a party, and the Chancellor listens to it. Besides Merkel with a big share of probability will lead a coalition government there will be free Democrats, “green” and she will listen to the partners and to implement what is needed Germany. But the General principles is the “four freedoms”: capital, services, labor and goods. For this and Germany is, however, subject to the economic disciplines, that is, not to live in debt and live within your means.
Actually, the need to live within our means, I think, and could embroil the Rules and Merkel. Especially if the EU reforms will indeed be directed towards a two speed Europe, which said since the crisis in Greece… Well, actually, it’s more the idea of Jacques Delors, announced in 80. Although members of the EU was 12 and not 28, already at that time he saw the necessity of developing with different speeds. Can and to embroil, though, rather than with Merkel and Wolfgang Schaeuble, Finance Minister of Germany, who is the protector of the fundamental German principles of management. But do not be afraid. The Makron and the program yet it operates slogans, as a Bolshevik, but a clear program we do not see. Fight possible and on the basis of personal dislike of Him and Merkel.
Now let’s imagine that the social scientists were wrong, and the President of France is marine Le Pen. Her economic program is also, to put it mildly, difficult, but a referendum on secession from the EU she mentions constantly. The referendum is a topic for another discussion. But the Franco German axis, on which rests the welfare of the whole of the European Union, must exist in any case, it’s more than likes and dislikes of certain politicians. What is the fate of the axis in case of victory of Le Pen? I see politics as an economist, and I see that the policy is rehabilitating. No matter who it comes, Theresa may, Donald trump, Angela Merkel. The coordinate system in which politicians are forced to act, raising. And punishes that Renzi was being punished for a referendum, Blair was punished, the same Merkel was punished for reckless statements to “We can handle it”.
Those policies that remain really begin to rebuild yourself, loved ones, and, as journalists say, “to meet the challenges of the time.” One thing the campaign and populism, and another when you come to power. Sociologists have low chances of marine Le Pen. However, Donald Trump polls is also not flattering…
I do not exclude that if Le Pen becomes President, she will go the way of subsidiarity, that is as to take away from Brussels that will make France “great.” It would be nice, right. I do not rule out a referendum on EU membership in France and very good that now you can see how complicated a process is, what it costs and what you can lose.
And you correctly noted 1951, when France realized what the pledge of peace in Europe, and joined the coal and steel Union the predecessor of the EU. The Nobel peace prize was awarded to the European Union for it eternal rivals are reconciled, and economic factors.
And in this respect I like the context and connotations of your question whether there will be the danger of a new quarrel between France and Germany? Yes, the risk with the arrival of Le Pen, I see, and macron may add fuel to the fire. And be a problem, if a President is not smart enough to understand that France and Germany two Nations, which since 1951 and is the United Europe. And I think that the talent of politicians is to lean on those solutions that benefit all.